According to a report, the UK’s food price increases could reach 15% this summer – the highest in over 20 years – and inflation will continue into next year.

According to a report, the UK’s food price increases could reach 15% this summer – the highest in over 20 years – and inflation will continue into next year.

The worst effects of the conflict in Ukraine are likely to be on meat, cereals and dairy products, as well as export bans on key food items such as palm oil from Indonesia, and wheat from India.

Problems with exports, production from Ukraine and sanctions on Russia will cause the greatest price rises for products that depend on wheat.

According to the report, inflation should last until next summer but could continue beyond that due to a variety of factors, including additional agricultural countries imposing export bans, trade disruption related to Brexit and unfavourable weather conditions in the northern hemisphere, or further weakening sterling.

According to the report, Britain’s food- and consumer goods industries are “uniquely vulnerable to current pressures because of a dependence on food imports as well as the effects of EU exit”.

The new system has increased costs due to additional administrative work at the EU border, and other legislative changes. It also causes labour shortages which in turn leads to higher wages for farmers as well as food producers.

James Walton, chief economist at IGD said that it was unlikely that the cost of living will ease soon. Many households and businesses will be anxious about the future, as this will certainly leave them with a lot of anxiety. A family of four will need to spend approximately PS516 more each year if their average food bill goes up 10.9% per year. Already, we are seeing households skip meals. This is a clear indicator of food stress.

We expect shoppers’ moods to remain negative for the foreseeable future due to rising inflation and falling real wages. Shoppers will likely increase their money-saving strategies as much as they can.

The inflation experienced by households could be closer to 9% if they make changes in their behaviour, such as switching to supermarkets’ own-label products and searching for bargains at discount chain stores.

Soaring food costs will only increase household budget pressures. Average UK wage falls at the fastest pace in 20 years, and energy and petrol prices rise to deliver the highest inflation rate since the 1970s.

One in seven households with lower incomes says they miss more meals. Higher-income households tend to plan their shopping better to limit spending.

It said that problems with the availability of certain goods such as sunflower oil were likely to continue this year, which will impact sales performance for retailers, and upset customers.